Oh boy, a REAL doomsday thread!
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Thread: Oh boy, a REAL doomsday thread!

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    Default Oh boy, a REAL doomsday thread!


    Blast it or paint it: Asteroid to threaten Earth in 2013

    NASA's data shows the 60-meter asteroid, spotted by Spanish stargazers in February, will whistle by Earth in 11 months. Its trajectory will bring it within a hair’s breadth of our planet, raising fears of a possible collision.

    The asteroid, known as DA14, will pass by our planet in February 2013 at a distance of under 27,000 km (16,700 miles). This is closer than the geosynchronous orbit of some satellites.

    There is a possibility the asteroid will collide with Earth, but further calculation is required to estimate the potential threat and work out how to avert possible disaster, NASA expert Dr. David Dunham told students at Moscow’s University of Electronics and Mathematics (MIEM).
    Now THAT's something to lose sleep about.

    Paging Bruce Willis!

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    罗伯特 Ghettobirds's Avatar
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    chances are they'll push the date back a few decades
    我很好,也我们不是


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    Here's a link to the modeling scenarios. So far they haven't forecast a direct hit, but they don't have many data points to run regression on yet.

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    I'm a Guy. G!RLskater64's Avatar
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    DESTROY IT WITH LAZERS! On a serious note, this very well could be something to actually be worried about, but you never know. Space is a very strange thing. looks to be right on Valentines day too, by looking at that orbital pattern. coincidence? I think not. Haha "HAPPY VALENTINES DAY, HUMANS!" Boom.

    EDIT: the Asteroid is marked at -3.28 to a maximum chance of -4.4 on the Palermo scale. anything under -2 isn't considered a threat. also, look at this chart. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?2.2e-04
    There really isn't anything to be worried about. An asteroid came close to Earth a bit back, and was more likely to hit than this one, and didn't.
    Last edited by G!RLskater64; 03-05-2012 at 09:38 PM.

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    ROADHOUSE!!!!!! GridgeSauce's Avatar
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    If it does hit, well, **** happens. We might as well just have fun, and live every day as if it were the last.
    Only in Wisconsin can you have heat stroke one day, then frost bite the next day.


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    Quote Originally Posted by G!RLskater64 View Post
    EDIT: the Asteroid is marked at -3.28 to a maximum chance of -4.4 on the Palermo scale. anything under -2 isn't considered a threat. also, look at this chart. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?2.2e-04
    There really isn't anything to be worried about. An asteroid came close to Earth a bit back, and was more likely to hit than this one, and didn't.
    Those numbers are mighty confident considering they only discovered this object 11 days ago. With only 11 days of data points there must be a very high degrees of freedom added to those statistics.

    Analysis based on
    106 observations spanning 11.419 days
    (2012-Feb-23.03431 to 2012-Mar-05.45291)

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    I'm a Guy. G!RLskater64's Avatar
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    I agree, It is only from 11 days of research/Discovery, but, don't you think that if they track other celestial bodies from 100 years ahead of time, that 11 months for it to get here isn't that long? Therefore, the results COULD prove devastating, but may not change at all.

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    syrup sipper
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    Meh if it hits us it hits us. It's not like any governments will be able to cooperate long enough to come up with a plan to destroy it. Anyway odds are it would land somewhere in the ocean and I live in Ohio so I'm not too worried haha.
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    ^Could be, but if its going fast enough,it could screw up the orbital path. (Maybe)
    I know it sounds like bollocks coming from me, but I don't think im THAT clueless.

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    syrup sipper
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    Quote Originally Posted by G!RLskater64 View Post
    ^Could be, but if its going fast enough,it could screw up the orbital path. (Maybe)
    I know it sounds like bollocks coming from me, but I don't think im THAT clueless.
    Nope. The earths orbit is already pretty elliptical. It would take a lot more than a little asteroid to knock us far enough off course to be significant.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baller View Post
    Nope. The earths orbit is already pretty elliptical. It would take a lot more than a little asteroid to knock us far enough off course to be significant.
    It would take a Goku, probably.
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    Quote Originally Posted by G!RLskater64 View Post
    ^Could be, but if its going fast enough,it could screw up the orbital path. (Maybe)
    I know it sounds like bollocks coming from me, but I don't think im THAT clueless.
    Quote Originally Posted by Baller View Post
    Nope. The earths orbit is already pretty elliptical. It would take a lot more than a little asteroid to knock us far enough off course to be significant.
    60 meters would leave a mark, about the size of a small town. The article compares it to one nuclear bomb or the unexplained explosion that leveled that forest in Russia back around 1918. I guess the Japan disaster or 2003 tsunami might be similar levels of death and devastation. I just wonder how much they will say if impact really does look possible next year. They can't even predict with any confidence where a satellite will crash when the orbit decays. They won't know where this thing's gonna hit in time to evacuate a city. Hours before the impact they will probably have it narrowed down to 1/4th of the planet or a complete miss.

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    I'm a Guy. G!RLskater64's Avatar
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    To me, It looks like a miss. but, If it does come into the atmosphere, I think the decay would shrink the size of it significantly, maybe enough as to not cause as big of a problem.

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    It could very well (is currently predicted to) pass close enough to take out a few satellites and fk up your GPS and TV for awhile.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoSwitch View Post
    It could very well (is currently predicted to) pass close enough to take out a few satellites and fk up your GPS and TV for awhile.
    That will be the end of the world, for sure. No GPS or TV?! What will we do without them?!?!?! Well, I guess, if cell phones still work, it might be worth staying alive.
    Only in Wisconsin can you have heat stroke one day, then frost bite the next day.


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    ^Lol As long as it doesn't touch my Telus satellite, or my interwebz, I'm ok. And I don't even watch TV as it is.

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    In before "We're all ****ed"

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    Damn. Here I was, hoping for nuclear war and having Fallout 3 come to reality. Failed dreams are failed.
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    Quote Originally Posted by kk360 View Post
    In before "We're all ****ed"
    I can't wait to berate all the noobs that open Asteroid threads next February instead of bumping this one!


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    Quote Originally Posted by kk360 View Post
    In before "We're all ****ed"
    Would you just drop it already?

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